Japan sales tax, snap poll in focus as Abe prepares for G7 summit
Abe had been hoping, experts said, to use a G7 agreement on the need to bolster the world economy with fiscal steps as a launch pad for a domestic package including the probable postponement of a planned sales tax rise, replaying a strategy he used successfully before a 2014 snap lower house election.
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had one very important mission at this year's G7 summit: sell his brand of economic policies "Abenomics" to the world, and convince world leaders that they should all agree to spend more money in their economies to avert the next crisis. 今回のG7サミットにあたり、安倍には重要なミッションがあった。彼自身のブランドであるアベノミクスを世界に輸出し、 新たな経済危機を阻止するためにより多くのカネを使わなくてはいけないと、首脳たちを説得することだ。
He failed. 彼は失敗した。
Yes, Mr Abe did get an agreement from the G7 that global growth is an urgent priority, and that risks remain - in particular a British vote to leave the European Union, which will be decided in a referendum next month. 彼はG7首脳から、次のような合意を得た。経済成長は差し迫った最優先事項であり、世界経済にはイギリスのEU脱退などの リスクがあるということだ。
But what he didn't get was a joint action plan that endorsed his view that increasing government spending is the best way out of a slowdown. しかし経済停滞を抜け出すには財政支出の拡大が必要という主張を裏付ける共同行動計画は得られなかった。
Germany and the UK were never going to agree that, given that they believe in austerity as the way forward. ドイツとイギリスは成長のための緊縮財政を支持しており、これに決して同意しなかった。
In his closing speech at the G7 today though, you'd never think that Mr Abe was a man defeated. ところが閉会のスピーチを行った安倍は、敗北者のように見えなかった。
Instead, he talked of how the G7 had agreed to deploy "Abenomics" throughout the world (surprising how that sentence didn't make it into the communique) and also agreed to the total mobilisation of all possible policies - something he said Japan is determined to do. 彼はG7がアベノミクスを世界中で展開すること(この一文は公式声明には盛り込まれなかった)、またあらゆる政策を 動員すること(恐らく日本がやろうとしている何か)について合意したと強調した。
Why is that important? Well, Mr Abe was hoping to get the international backing he needs to delay the much-anticipated consumption tax due to be implemented in 2017. なぜそこにこだわったのか。安倍は期待されている消費税増税の延期について、国際的な後ろ盾がほしかったのだ。
He wasn't able to convince his partners at the G7 of that. Now, let's see if his voters buy into his story. 彼はG7首脳の説得に失敗した。日本の有権者が彼の話に乗るかどうか、注目しておこう。
Japan’s Shinzo Abe Hints at Tax Delay With Warning of Global Crisis May 27, 2016 8:55 a.m. ET Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed this week to persuade the Group of Seven industrialized nations that the world faced a possible economic crisis, and then went on to issue a warning himself on Friday. 安倍首相は世界経済危機についてG7首脳を説得することに失敗したが、金曜にまた自分で警告を発している。 His grim view served to open the door to another delay in a planned sales-tax increase in Japan, a possibility he acknowledged for the first time Friday, though his advisers had said privately for weeks that he was considering it. 彼の悲観的な見解は、金曜に彼が初めて可能性に言及した消費税増税延期に道筋をつけるのが目的であり、 延期の方針は何週間にもわたって指摘されていた。 http://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-shinzo-abe-hints-at-tax-delay-with-warning-of-global-crisis-1464353713
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REUTERS Japan sales tax, snap poll in focus as Abe prepares for G7 summit Tue May 24, 2016 5:32am EDT Abe had been hoping, experts said, to use a G7 agreement on the need to bolster the world economy with fiscal steps as a launch pad for a domestic package including the probable postponement of a planned sales tax rise, replaying a strategy he used successfully before a 2014 snap lower house election. 専門家によると安倍は、世界経済刺激のための財政措置に関するG7合意を、内政に利用したがっている。 2014年の選挙で彼を勝利に導いた消費税増税の延期を、また繰り返したいのだろう。 http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YF0YI
>>70 FINANCIAL TIMES Abe’s grim warning about global economy highlights G7 divisions May 26, 2016 10:58 am Given the implausibility of his comparison with 2008 ― the world economy is growing steadily, rather than falling apart ― the fact that he used it suggests Mr Abe plans to delay a scheduled rise in Japan’s consumption tax from 8 to 10 per cent. Mr Abe has repeatedly said that only a devastating natural disaster or an economic shock on the scale of Lehman Brothers would justify a delay. The recent earthquake in Kyushu provides the first; now he has found the second. 安倍は信じるに値しない2008年との比較(世界経済は下降するどころか着実に成長している) を提示したが、それは安倍が消費税増税の延期を考えていることを示している。 安倍は壊滅的な自然災害ないしリーマン級の経済危機があれば消費税増税を延期すると 繰り返してきた。最近の九州の地震がその1つめであり、彼は2つめを見つけたわけだ。 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6c804178-231c-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html
WSJ G-7 Leaders Differ on Risks to Global Growth Updated May 26, 2016 9:18 a.m. ET “We have reached a common understanding that the world economy is facing serious risks,” Mr. Abe told reporters later. 安倍首相は記者に「我々は世界経済が深刻な危機に直面しているとの共通の認識に至った」と語った。 Mr. Abe’s words may have been intended for Japanese voters. 安倍の言葉は恐らく日本の有権者に向けられたものだろう。 http://www.wsj.com/articles/g-7-summit-kicks-off-in-japan-1464224610